Earlier I put Gordon Brown’s decision to refer the expenses issue to the independent Committee on Standards in Public Life, down to the fact it was clear the government was going to be defeated. While this is undoubtedly true, did the prospect of a Charles Clarke shaped stalking horse seal the deal?

Alex Hilton of LabourHome reported this morning that a former Cabinet Minister was willing to trigger a leadership election if Brown lost tonight’s vote. Iain Dale then picked up the story, made a couple of phone calls and found that that the former Home Secretary is indeed willing to do a Sir
Anthony Meyer.

…I believe it to be Charles Clarke, whose patience has finally snapped. However, he may not need to man the barricades.

A very reputable Labour parliamentary source claims that “Gordon is hating being Prime Minister.” He certainly wouldn’t be the first PM to get the job only to find out that he didn’t really like it. Harold Macmillan would fall into that category.

While the Prime Minister may be willing to hold on to the bitter end, it appears that some former ministers and an increasing number of backbenchers are less willing.

Just because Brown has temporarily pacified Clarke, this doesn’t mean the threat has diminished. If, as is expected, the European elections are a disaster for Labour Charles Clarke could be willing to mount his challenge.

If this was to happen, and Brown were to be defeated, we would be looking at an early general election as the winner of any leadership contest would have no time to set out a new policy direction. But more importantly would not have a mandate from the people.

Clarke is certainly a big beast of the Labour party and any threat from him must be taken seriously by Team Brown, and it will be interesting to watch Clarke over the next few weeks as we move closer to the Euro elections.

After first been forced into scraping his plans to introduce a per day payment for MPs based on attendance, Gordon Brown has been forced into yet another humiliating climbdown over MPs expenses. Commons Leader, Harriet Harman stunned those in the Chamber when she accepted Sir George Young’s amendment which aims to refer everything to the Committee on Standards in Public Life.

As it became clear that the government would not win any vote, the Whips must have advised Brown that this was the only solution to extract himself from the debacle.

I have already written about the torrid week the Prime Minister has had, I have also mention on this blog several time that Gordon’s premiership is beginning to resemble the dying days of the Major government by the day.

Nick Robinson eloquently sums up this feeling on his blog:

After Peter Mandelson’s wry description of “a bit of a week”, he went on to deny that the prime minister had lost his authority.

However, Gordon Brown shows every sign of having lost the respect, the fear and habit of loyalty from his party which are the foundations of prime ministerial authority.

If the government loses today’s vote on MPs allowances, which it looks like they will, then any shred of credibility or authority the Prime Minister still has will be lost. If this happens, it become increasingly difficult to see how he can regain the authority needed to hold his increasingly rebellious MPs in line.

One of the worst things that can happen to any Prime Minister is when backbenches become more concerned about saving their own seats than backing the policies of the government.

The transition from one government to another has a checkered history in British politics. Some have gone extremely well, others such as Tony Blair’s 1997 transition have gone exceedingly badly.

Throughout the 97 campaign Blair devoted so much time to selling policies to the electorate and micro-managing the news cycle he neglected the important job, making sure his ministers actually know how to run the departments that would taking over.

This is not a mistake that David Cameron is willing to make. Benedict Brogan has an excellent article about the steps that the next Prime Minister is taking to make sure that his ministers can hit the ground running, and avoid the rigamortis we saw in Blair’s first few months.

Mr Cameron shows every sign of understanding the imperative of being prepared. At his direction, an unprecedented programme of training and planning has been underway for months, with the aim not just of turning opposition spokesmen into battle-ready ministers, but policy into legislation, and principles into fundamental changes to the very culture of government.

By now, nearly all members of the shadow cabinet have met their respective future permanent secretaries. Details are sketchy, but I detect a variety of responses: in most cases, the engagement has been positive and promising, with others less so. Those who have sat in on the meetings describe the overall impression so far as “cautiously positive”.

William Hague, we know, presented Sir Peter Ricketts at the Foreign Office with a series of clear requests that left little doubt about what’s in store. The head of the diplomatic service was asked to prepare a Bill for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty that must be ready for publication within days of the Tories taking over. He was also told about plans for a new national security council, and asked for a wiring diagram of his department to ensure that when Mr Hague gets there he knows where to put the pressure.

Jack Straw – another Labour figure with a keen understanding of the importance of continuity – has urged his permanent secretary Sir Suma Chakrabarti to engage closely with his opposite number Dominic Grieve, in the knowledge that the very future of the department could be at stake. Dinner is planned and even meetings involving junior members of the shadow Ministry of Justice team.

Little is known about the contacts between the Treasury and George Osborne, arguably the most important relationship of a future Conservative government. He has met both formally and informally with Sir Nicholas Macpherson, the department’s cerebral permanent secretary, who has the advantage of having experienced the last transition as principal private secretary to Kenneth Clarke and then Gordon Brown. Sir Nicholas will have to hive off oversight of public spending, and accept a return to Cabinet responsibility for deciding overall expenditure and priorities. Like most Whitehall officials, he will welcome a return to the tradition of “civil servants advise, ministers decide”.

For his part, the shadow chancellor is overseeing a parallel operation to draw up a Tory government’s plan of action for office, which will include not just a timetable for the first day, week and month, but a clear programme for the 100 days and the “choreography of symbols” – the images and actions that will give definition to a Cameron administration.

A team led by Francis Maude and run by Nicholas Boles, the former head of the Policy Exchange think tank and – usefully – a graduate of the Kennedy School of Government, has been working for months to ensure that the Conservatives are as prepared as it is possible to be for the day Mr Cameron walks up Downing Street. Wherever they turn, new issues present themselves.

They are being helped by Sir Michael Bichard, who runs the new Institute for Government, a charitable foundation paid for by Lord Sainsbury, who left Government frustrated at the lack of training available to would-be ministers.

The non-party institute has been helping the Tories think through tricky issues, including how to ensure the public sector works for, and not against, central government’s priorities.

Alongside the formal talks, there have been seminars, breakfasts and long sessions with former mandarins and ministers who have all brought their expertise to bear. There are even reading and viewing lists, which include Gerald Kaufman’s How to be a Minister and Alastair Campbell’s diaries, as well as Yes, Minister and The Thick of It.

Michael Heseltine was the star turn at one gathering. He offered 10 tips for being a successful minister, including “don’t bother with special advisers” and “on day one, make sure you present your new permanent secretary with your agenda, otherwise he will present you with his”. A Cabinet minister, he explained, should never read a submission from officials that has not already been read by a junior minister, to ensure two sets of eyes check for booby traps.

Read more HERE

Tomorrow’s Independent newspaper will carry yet another grim poll for the Labour party, as it becomes clearer by the day that Brown’s populist swinging to the left has not paid-off.

The ComRes findings are similar to that of the YouGov poll in the Sunday People, and would delivers the Conservatives a whopping 170 majority. And as more and more of the polling companies release there post Budget opinion polls, there is little hope on the horizon of a Labour turnaround.

So many echoes of the last months of Major.

Gordon Brown must have thought that his idea of replacing the controversial Additional Costs Allowance, which has allowed MPs to claim thousands of pounds in taxpayers money, with a per day payment of £150 was a brilliant idea. Well what a difference a week makes.

First David Cameron and Nick Clegg refused to back his plans, then Sir Christopher Kelly refused to release the findings of his review into MPs expenses before his investigation was complete. Finally members of the Parliamentary Labour Party condemned the Prime Ministers ill conceived plans, following a meeting last night.

Adding insult to injury Charles Clarke, appearing on The World at One, called on the PM to pull Thursday’s vote on the issue:

“On these kind of political solutions he’s got to recognise that these are House of Commons matters and he’s got to not bully in the way he goes about it. If you just pick up the newspaper one morning and see you are being asked to do something, that’s simply not the way to conduct politics. It’s very damaging. I hope he’ll now take the opportunity to pull the proposed vote on Thursday altogether.”

No week is ever straightforward for a Prime Minister, but for Brown this week has been disastrous. First he was given a right royal snub at the hands of the President of Pakistan, who pulled out of a joint news conference at short notice. Then his personal authority was further eroded, when he was forced to drop plans to scrap the Additional Costs Allowance, and replace it with a standard day-rate for MPs. And today it was the turn of the Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, to deliver a ritual humiliation. He told Brown in no uncertain terms, that his country would not be following Brown’s disastrous economic policy.

It is not for me to comment on other countries, but the Polish government at a time of financial crisis behaved with full responsibility in terms of its public funds and the budget deficit. After a few months you can say that our economic and financial policy has been accepted both at home and abroad. The government made the assumption that the best way to deal with the problem was not to increase public spending but the availability of public finance. Effective supervision of banks and sticking to the rules, not exaggerating with living on credit – these are the most certain ways to avoid [the consequences] of financial crisis.

All this and its still only Tuesday, lets hope someone keeps our dear leader away for any laser printers, or mobile phones.

Read more HERE

Launching a new series of ‘War Room briefings’ Party Chairman Eric Pickles takes us behind the scenes at CCHQ and talks about the party’s strategy, and in the process shows Team Brown what a successful online video looks like.

PS. I may be wrong, but something tells me that we will never go behind the scenes of Labour’s HQ.

When it comes to international politics there’s a veritable minefield of protocols and etiquette to follow, breach these rules in the presence of a foreign leader and you can deliver a severe diplomatic snub, and send a signal of disapproval.

Earlier today, the President of Pakistan delivered one of the most visible snubs you can to a leader on a foreign visit, he cancelled the planned press conference between the two of them. The move came after Gordon Brown signalled a shift in British policy, warning of the perils posed by the “crucible of terror” in the border region between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Better look next time Gordo.