The BBC is reporting that David Miliband will not “look for high office in Europe.”

I have being saying for a long time that Milibands movements on the European front are indicative of the way the labour leadership is moving. If he is not going to be the first high representative for foreign affairs then he can only have an eye on one job, and we all know which job that is.

Speaking on the BBC’s Ten o’clock news Nick Robinson said that those close the the foreign secretary told him that if he moved to Europe his actions would be “perceived as a rat fleeing a sinking ship.”

According to the BBC political editor he told the head of the European socialists’ group on Sunday he was not interested in the job.

In an attempt to quell repeated speculation over his future in government Mr Miliband said he was not “available” for a European post, but did not ruled out taking one if it was offered.

While Mr Miliband has publicly backed Gordon Brown, its clear that he still has an eye on the top job. We know that he came very close to resigning form the government with his close friend James Purnell in June, it’s also reasonable to think that he has been in discussion with Peter Mandelson regarding the next leader of the party.

Nick Robinson is reporting that a friend of the foreign secretary has told him that “David sees his future in British politics,” could this close friend be none other than the business secretary?

Clearly Lord Mandelson is a key ally of Mr Miliband and is now the most powerful person in the government. Indeed he is the only person who can single handily make or break the leadership dreams of his colleagues.

Is David Miliband about to stand down and move to Europe?

Jonathan Isaby is reporting that he has been told that David MIliband is poised to stand down from his South Shields seat in order to take up the EU “Foreign Minister” job created by the Lisbon Treaty.

I have always being of the opinion that D Milibands movements on the European front would indicate how the wind was blowing on the Labour leadership front. I have previously written that Lord Mandelson is the real key to the leadership, and that anyone who wants the thrown needs his backing.

If Jonathan’s sources are correct then it would indicate that D Miliband does not have the full support of the Business Secretary – leaving the way clear for his younger brother or even Ed Balls.

I think, out of the current Cabinet, that the front runner would have to be Ed Miliband. For one thing Ed would fulfill one of the key criteria for any new leader, namely the change in leader has to be generational.

Saying that the labour party needs a young leader to go up against a young Prime Minister is not the in thing to say right now, but it is nether the less true.

It is now widely accepted that Gordon Brown was the wrong leader for labour for many reasons, one of them being that he his seen as old and dower compared to David Cameron and Nick Clegg – both seen as young and vigourous by their parties.

Good old Tory Rascal was sniffing around Parliament last night and, it appears, one of the MPs he got talking to in the Strangers bar let slip a little to much, revealing that support for Gordon Brown is ebbing away and that even Peter Mandelson has begun briefing against him.

There are few people in the Cabinet that could single handily bring down the PM, but Mandelson is one of them. It is for this reason that Brown has worked so hard to keep him happy.

Speaking to Rascal, the high profile MP said:

“Peter has always said that he’d support Gordon in public, which always struck me as a bit arch.”

”Now he’s decided that the party’s only hope is the Milibands – which, frankly, is total bullshit,” the MP added.

According to Tory Rascal the MP went on to say that even Brown’s most ardent supporters are now resigned to him standing down, which could happen some time around Christmas:

”A few of us think there’s a good chance he’ll walk away, and now even some of his friends are nodding at the dissenters. It would break him, which would be a terrible shame – he feels that if he does walk away, his life to date will have been wasted. I’ve known Gordon for years, and I think it’s a shame it’s come to this – but the party has to get through.”

One of the arguments Labour use internally against removing Brown is the fact that the general public would not tolerate two unelected Prime Ministers in a row. If Brown was forced out around Christmas or New Year, as this MP sugests it is conceivable that Johnson or Miliband could get away with being installed as long as they immediately confirmed the May/June date.

Clearly Rascal’s contact is a firm member of the AJ4MP camp and believes that the Brothers Miliband don’t stand a chance.

“To be honest, no-one thinks either of the Milibands could win us the election at this point, and they’d be stupid to risk it. If one of them gets in, you’ll have Cameron, Clegg and another anodyne nobody, with nothing to tell between them. With Alan, we really do think we could scrape through the election. He has a story and a life before politics, unlike the Milibands. Apart from all that, he’s just a lovely bloke, which certainly isn’t something you could say of David.”

This I’m not so sure of, I have already written about the fact that any change in leader needs to be generational. This is something I think that Mandelson recognises, and will do all he can to make a reality. He backed the winner in 1994 and he will back the winner again.

What is most evident from Tory Rascal’s account though is that Brown’s time is rapidly running out and that his key allies are thinking of the future – a future without Brown.

On Tuesday I wrote an article highlighting moves over the Labour leadership involving Peter Mandelson and South Shields MP and foreign secretary, David Miliband.

Last night, while all us politico’s were glued to Nick Griffin on Question Time, The First Post “Mole” published a very interesting story that will only add to the leadership speculation. He revealed that Peter Mandelson will be in South Shields this weekend to give the annual “South Shields Lecture.”

Something tells me that they won’t just be talking about how nice the beach is. As Rachel Sylvestor in the Times wrote “It would be fascinating to hear their private conversation.”

Labour realists can see that the recent polls carry one obvious message: Labour cannot win a general election while Gordon Brown remains leader.

There is also a realisation that if there is to be change, then it must be generational, this limits the choice of leader to three – Ed Balls and the Brothers Miliband.

Balls is seen as too ambitious, too much of a bruiser, and too closely associated with Brown. These traits are not surprising when you consider the fact that he learned his craft at the knee of Gordon Brown.

So we are left with Ed and David Miliband. Clearly neither of them can become leader without a little help so enter, stage left, the puppet master in chief Peter Mandelson.

The Business Secretary has been having a rather good time at the minute, despite the Postal Strike, and if he were to withdrawal his support it would be terminal for Brown.

Clearly any new leader of the Labour party would not be able to get away without calling an election, this has always been one of the argument used internally within Labour against a change. But as the “Mole” point out, if the change were to happen at the end of this year or early next then they may be able to get away with sticking to the May/June election time scale.

“if the changeover were to be left to Christmas/New Year, and the new leader in place by, say, the end of January, then they would probably get away with holding on for a May election, on the grounds that that’s what everyone’s been expecting, as long as they immediately confirmed the May/June date.”

From at strategic point of view this makes a lot of sense as it would allow the new leader put a Cabinet in place, to outline their plans and to ride the wake of an expected bump in the polls that is normally associated with a new leader.

If Ed Balls is ruled out of the leadership, as I think he will be, the question arises which Miliband brother will stand.

With the speculation in today’s papers around David Miliband been tipped as a leading candidate to become the European Foreign Minister, many think that this makes Ed the favourite. While David’s pro-european stance and his good standing in Brussels undoubtedly makes him a leading contender, to think that because of this he will rule himself out of the Labour leadership is too simplistic.

If he can get reassurances from Mandelson over his leadership bid then he will turn down any European position. This I believe is key and makes Milibands response the think to watch out for.

If Miliband is cool on the prospect of becoming European Foreign Minister then I think we can be sure that Mandelson is warming to David being leader. If he rejects the job out of hand, then I think its safe to say that he’s received the full support from Business Secretary for him leadership bid.

This obviously does not answer the question of what to do about Ed. The brother’s will be wary of doing a Blair/Brown type deal over the leadership. Having watched as that deal poisoned the relationship between the two men and how this infected the whole of government, they will be keen to avoid this at all costs. What I think we may see is one being the leader and the other being Chancellor.

Since his ennoblement and return to the Cabinet Lord Mandelson has held the future of the Labour party in his hands. This obviously makes the Business Secretary the most powerful person in the whole labour movement and gives him the power of king-maker. Because of this Mandelson is the only one to watch when it comes to Labour’s succession.

If reports in today’s papers are correct, then Mandelson could be about to shift support away from Brown into David Miliband’s direction.

John Rentoul has spotted this “slightly quixotic” brief letter from Labour MP Colin Challen :

“Perhaps Labour could avoid a generation out of power with the following calendar: 23 November, election of a new PLP chair is a signal that there is sufficient feeling that Gordon too has to go; 30 November, sufficient signatures gathered, Gordon goes; party recognises need for quick leadership election, new leader installed by 21 December; one month to show off new cabinet and launch one Tory-busting cruise missile of a new policy; dissolve parliament 28 January, election day 18 or 25 February. Labour’s bounce leaves it as largest party, possibly with Ed Miliband as PM. What are the odds?”

While the timetable does make some sense, it’s hard to see were the parties new leader could magic some “Tory-busting cruise missile” from.

More support for the miliband’s bid for power comes thanks to Rachel Sylvester in the Times, who having spoken to a Cabinet minister or two, thinks that one of the brothers is the likely contender for Mandelson’s support and, therefor, the party leadership:

“There are many who hope that the Miliband brothers, having saved the world, will save their party. For years Labour was dominated by the political brothers, Mr Blair and Mr Brown, whose rivalry tore the family apart; now the leadership is hovering between two real brothers who, for the moment at least, remain friends.

It’s no good going for a caretaker candidate, fun though Alan Johnson is. Labour needs a leader who looks ready for the future and really wants the job. The party has to move on to the next generation.”

Sylvester hints that Mandy may well switch his support to Miliband the elder. If that is true, then it is all over for Brown.

Mandelson has always been a shrood operator and it’s no surprise that he is looking around for the next leader to support. One thing that must be on his mind though is timing, for if Mandelson announces that he would support Miliband (or any other Cabinet member) then it’s all over for Brown as PM.

While this would be a spectacular end to Gordon Brown’s premiership the likelihood of it blowing up in public is very slim. As we know from the Blair/Brown tussle of 1994 Mandelson likes to work behind the scenes to build up his candidate and weaken opponents, and I suspect we will see, or not see, the same again.

Staffers inside Brown’s bunker will want to make sure the Prime Minister doesn’t see today’s Mail on Sunday, otherwise I suspect they may spend the rest of the day dodging flying mobile phones and laser printers.

The reason, a new book by Sky News political editor Adam Boulton which says Tony Blair has a near contemptuous view of his successor’s ability to bounce back, and that he believes Brown may find an excuse to ‘duck out’ of the Election – possibly on health grounds.

The book, Tony’s Ten Years, reveals:

“In private, Mr Blair commented to several friends that history showed Mr Brown to be a quitter, not a fighter (to reverse Peter Mandelson’s 2001 election-night description of himself)… In 1983, Mr Brown had arrived in Parliament at the same time as Mr Blair because he had rejected repeated invitations to challenge an incumbent in a Scottish constituency. In 1994, he ducked out of contesting the leadership with Mr Blair.

In 2007, he and his lieutenants launched a reign of terror to make sure there was no leadership contest.

So, even before the ministerial resignations of last June, Mr Blair and his circle wondered: could Mr Brown duck out again –on sickness grounds, say, or to take up a big public job elsewhere – to avoid a potentially ugly reckoning with the voters?”

If that was not bad enough for Brown, Adam Boulton also highlights the sense of dismay that has swepped over Lord Mandelson – who’s clearly been propping up the embattled Prime Minister since his return to government.

“The Mail on Sunday has been told that Business Secretary Lord Mandelson is ‘in despair’ at Mr Brown’s failure to get a grip of events which have led to a growing conviction in Mr Blair’s inner circle that a Conservative victory is almost inevitable.

A well-placed source said: ‘Peter genuinely thought he could turn things round for Gordon but it is proving to be much harder than he imagined. Tony was deeply sceptical about Gordon taking over all along and thinks he is a disaster.”

Without Mandy there’s zero hope of Brown ever winning an election, and while I have always been of the opinion that Brown would never stand down before the election. But if Lord Mandy has lost faith and tells him so, the prospect of Brown throwing in the towel for health reasons does sound plausible. Could we see more stories about our dear leaders mental health….

If vindication of the Conservatives planned reforms of education and league tables was needed, look no further than today’s Telegraph and Independent. Both paper’s are reporting that a large minority of comprehensive schools are now shunning traditional academic subjects, such as maths, physics and history.

“Around one in seven schools – 264 in total – did not enter any pupils for A-level geography in 2007 – the latest available information – and a similar proportion failed to enter students for physics.

Figures also show that more than one in 10 comprehensives did not enter pupils for A-level chemistry, while six percent failed to enroll candidates for maths and seven per cent shunned biology.

A further 145 schools – eight per cent – did not enter pupils for A-level history.”

These figures would seem to suggest that the annual rise in the A-level pass rate is the result of the government encouraging weaker school to focus more on ’soft subjects’ and not a genuine improvement in standards. If we were seeing a genuine and meaningful improvement in standards, we would be seeing many more state school pupils going to good universities to read academic subjects, including the nations most prestigious.

Yes there’s a financial hurdle to overcome for many state school pupils wishing to attend the countries top universities, but this has been reduced dramatically over the last decade. Now nearly all of them offer financial help to those coming from the comprehensive system, including fully funded scholarships, to those who are academically talented.

Conservative reforms, outlined by Michael Gove at the weekend, would reward those schools that enter pupils for tough subjects.

In the past Lord Mandelson has insisted top universities are engaged in socially engineering, favouring pupils that have had a private education over those who come from the state system, after this Lord Mandelson cannot seriously believe this.

Today’s Sunday Mirror/ICM poll may show that Team Cameron are maintaining a comfortable lead over embattled Brown, but for me one of the most interesting elements of the poll is who those surveyed want as the next Labour leader.

Those surveyed were asked who they thought “would be best to lead Labour if Mr Brown stood down”. Amongst all voters who took part in the survey, David Miliband came out top on 27%, followed by Jack Straw on 26%, Alas Johnson 15% and Peter Mandelson on 14%.

But amongst those voting Labour, many of whom will have a say in the next Labour leadership contest, the outcome was markedly different. Miliband still came out top with 23%, followed by Mandelson and Straw who were joint second on 21%. The paper does not include the other results, so we’ll have to wait until ICM published the full data to see where other leadership contends were placed.

While you would think that this might give a boost to the PM4PM campaign, its clear that polls of this kind are more an exercise in name recognition than anything else. Its also no surprise that Mandelson appeared so high up the poll, as it comes at the end of a week when he’s been all over the media.

The poll delivers one final piece of bad new for Labour, “.. the poll also found just seven per cent of voters said making Mandelson leader was more likely to make them vote Labour with 20 per cent saying it would make them less likely to.”

Since the beginning of the summer recess there’s been one story that’s refuses to die, until now. In an interview with Sky News’s Paul Harrison, Peter Mandelson has finally said that he has no intention of becoming Labour leader and Prime Minister, saying: “In this country if you are made a life peer it’s for life. It’s like a life sentence,” he explained.

The Constitutional Reform Bill, which was put before Parliament before the recess, would give Life peers the ability to resign from the House of Lords, something the Conservatives rightly appose.

Lord Mandelson continued: “I am a member of the House of Lords. There is no opportunity for me to divest myself with my life peerage.

“A peerage is for life. A life peerage. It is me officially ruling it out.”

Watch: